(Des Moines, IA) – Today, Simpson College (IA) and RABA Research released the results of a 3-day online survey of hard-to-reach Under-30 voters across the country. The poll finds that among younger voters, Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 23 points, 49% – 26%. Libertarian Gary Johnson sits at 11%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 5%. 10 percent are still undecided.
Trump’s support among younger voters is less than that of Under-30 voters who are undecided or currently supporting a third party candidate. Further, almost a third of Republican Millennials are supporting Clinton, Johnson, or are currently undecided.
“Despite media reports earlier this year of younger voters being wary of Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee currently enjoys a margin of support among these voters equal to Barack Obama’s final margin in 2012,” said Democratic RABA Partner Brad Anderson. “Our survey finds that young people are not gravitating to third party alternatives, nor are they overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the Democratic Party. Hillary Clinton’s debate discussion of issues important to younger voters – from immigration to civil rights – may have really broken through. And Donald Trump’s latest string of outrageous comments may be motivating young voters more than ever to back the Democratic nominee.”
The survey finds a strong belief among young voters (58%) in the idea of “white privilege,” and deep support (60%) for immigration reform. Younger voters are split on #BlackLivesMatter, with 43% having a favorable impression, and 36% with an unfavorable view. In the poll, 57% of Under-30 voters say they are optimistic about their economic prospects.
“We find that in contrast to a downbeat campaign, young voters of both parties are overwhelmingly optimistic about their economic prospects,” said Professor Kedron Bardwell, chair of Simpson’s political science department. “What draws Millennials strongly toward Hillary Clinton and away from Donald Trump, however, is not economics but young voters’ very progressive views on racial equality and immigration.”
The Simpson/RABA survey is the first of its kind – fielding questions written by Millennials studying at Simpson College, and capturing young voters’ responses online rather than by increasingly fruitless attempts to reach them with traditional telephone interviews.
“It would appear that despite Donald Trump’s efforts to appeal to disaffected voters in both parties, he has not garnered the support he had hoped for,” said Republican RABA Partner Kim Alfano. “This could be a function of his latest controversial comments, as well as Bernie Sander’s efforts to help Hillary Clinton.”
The survey of 1,202 voters aged 18 to 29 took place online between October 10th and 12th, and the results have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3%.